The Cy Youngs (so far) play for the... Padres and Tigers?

(Stats current as of 5/3/19)

The MVP race through the first month of the season is nothing new. Cody Bellinger is off to a historic start, easily his best start of his career and this will probably end up being the best year of his now 3 year career. Lewis Brinson getting optioned by the Marlins makes them sending Yelich to the Brewers even more questionable, as Yelich is easily number 2 in the National League this year. The American League continues to be run by Mike Trout, but young guys Dan Vogelbach, Hunter Dozier, and Austin Meadows are off to fantastic starts. None of this is surprising with Bellinger, Yelich, Trout, Rendon, Chapman all having great seasons and already pushing themselves into early MVP conversations. But the new, surprising names are the pitchers. Aaron Nola is a guy the Phillies thought they had who would dominate the NL East for the next 10 years but his ERA is sitting a smidge under 5. Chris Sale already has more losses this year than last year, and I know losses aren't a great idea of how well pitchers have been, his ERA is sitting at 5.25 AFTER he threw 6 shutout innings with 10 strikeouts. Other names like Kluber (bad start, now hurt), Tanaka, Severino (injured), among others, can't seem to pitch well here in 2019. But the names that are dominating the league aren't all surprises, but they're definitely new.

There are some household names still hanging in there, like Verlander (2.45 ERA), Strasburg (only trails teammate Scherzer in NL Strikeouts), Gerrit Cole leads the league in strikeouts and has a WHIP of 1.04. But the best pitcher in each league so far aren't household names, but they might be soon. The first is Tigers pitcher Matthew Boyd. Boyd has been dominating pitchers, and has been exactly what the Tigers wanted Michael Fulmer to be. Boyd has an extremely high strikeout rate of 11.6, has a WHIP of 1.06, and when he does allow hits, they aren't big hits, with less than 30% of his hits going for extra bases. Boyd leads the American League in FIP, he doesn't let guys on base and he strikes out a ton of guys, which is a recipe for no-runs, and complete dominance, and he's doing it better than anyone else in the league right now. Except for Chris Paddack. Chris Paddack is the only player in the league that is striking players out a higher rate than bases runners allowed. (Total Bases Allowed per Batter Faced: 0.270, Strikeouts per Batter Faced: 0.287) Paddack leads the league in WHIP, he faces the least amount of batters per inning, and the only reason he doesn't have higher strikeout numbers is because he averages 86 pitches a start, and only 5.5 innings a start, his manager for some reason refuses to leave him in the game (it might be because he's only 23). Two other National League surprises include Luis Castillo, (who has been waiting to have a breakout season for awhile now, and he finally has it this year), and Miami's Caleb Smith. Castillo has a devastating changeup and is striking out a ton of guys, and is the only pitcher in the league to come close to striking out as many guys as he lets on. He's also got a lower ERA than Paddack (and everyone else, 1.45), the only somewhat glaring issue is a little higher of a walk rate, but Cincinnati fans should be excited to finally have Castillo living up to what he was supposed to be, and dominating the league. Caleb Smith is more of a surprise, but his stats suggest his success won't be as sustainable as Castillo and Paddack. He does have the highest strikeout rate of the 3, but he allows the biggest hits of them (his XBH rate is higher than Paddack and Castillo's combined), which isn't a great recipe for maintaining his 2.00 ERA. But he's got a low walk rate, high strikeout rate, and is simply off to a fantastic start. Don't expect the Cy Young Race to come down to these 3 for the NL, but if Paddack and Castillo are in the conversation come September, don't say you weren't warned.